Some Notes About 2026 Protests in Iran
1- It is important to understand the context of the current protests in Iran. Isolating this movement from its predecessors is a misstep in fully comprehending the Iranian community as a whole. Each movement in Iran is a continuation of the earlier efforts. After the 2009 presidential election, with a high turnout of 88%, many came to the streets to fight the results, chanting "Where is my vote?" they primarily were not looking for a "regime change", but a "reform" of a radicalized Islamic Republic that was on a downward spiral at that point due to the terrible economic and social decisions made by both Ayatollah Khamenei (the Supreme Leader) and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (the president). Regardless, the regime responded with absolute cruelty, putting the leaders of the movement under house arrest, charging and killing dozens of activists and individuals who just wanted to show their disagreement with the regime.
2- Since then, there were a few movements here and there, mostly criticizing both social and economic issues within the country, but nothing was as bloody as the 2019–2020 protests, widely known as "Bloody Aban". After a significant increase in oil prices and escalation of tension between the regime and protesters in the last couple of movements, protests began on the 15th of November 2019. Yet, this was the largest movement since the 2009 election, and even in the more religious cities of Iran, such as Qom and Mashhad, crowds gathered to demonstrate their disapproval of the regime and the incompetence of the supreme leader. Unfortunately, this movement resulted in yet another brutal answer by the regime, resulting in an absolute massacre of defenseless people. There are numerous reports highlighting the number of casualties, from 300 to 1500. The fluctuation in the numbers shows the level of ambiguity of the regime and its death toll, and the failure of the international media to provide an accurate report on the event.nt.
3- Mahsa Amini was killed by the Hijab police on the 16th of September 2022. This time, the movement had a much more "social" driven force that made it quite distinct from prior occasions. Still, it was another instance of the complexity of the movements in Iran. "Women, Life, Freedom" (Jin, Jiyan, Azadî / Zan, Zendegī, Āzādī) was the outcome of another social, political, and economic failure of a regime that is under international sanctions and yet has no interest in providing the least for its people, not only that, but put more pressure to violate any sort of stability. Even though this movement was also challenged by aggression from the regime, it was showing how Iranians still believe in the importance of the streets and opposing a regime that has restricted them for so long.
4- The shift from "reforming" to "replacing" the Islamic Republic emerged in less than two decades of economic, political, social, and even climate collapse. Iran's Rial is nearly worthless, the regime's "axis of resistance" is more vulnerable than ever, society is alienating itself from any Shia practice, and water and electricity deficiencies have been a major issue for almost every city in the country. These are the main causes that people are rallying in the streets and seeking any opportunity to damage Khamenei's regime.
5- The silence from left-wing activists is tragic, but understandable. The Islamic Republic regime secured a lot of international respect due to opposing Israel and Trump during both 12-Days War and the 7th of October. However, it is unfair to overlook what Khamenei and his regime are doing to their own people just because they positioned themselves against imperialism and their inhumane and genocidal actions in Palestine. For sure, Netanyahu and his orange pedophile are war criminals with the blood of many on their hands, but Khamenei is not that different. I see many journalists and public figures on the left pushing to connect the protesters to Israel and the USA. While this interpretation can be somewhat justified, considering Zionists' pushing for Reza Pahlavi (son of the last Shah of Iran) to become the next leader and Trump's recent tweets, this movement, just like the “Green Movement”, “Bloody Aban”, and “Women, Life, Freedom”, is the consequence of decades of terror and suffering dictated to the people by the regime.
6- A video is circulating of a burning mosque in Iran. Some muslim journalists have been calling this an Islamophobic act and condemning Iranians for that. This is another example of the lack of understanding about the country and the people. While a "mosque" is known to be a sacred religious place for muslims around the globe, it is also a mark of atrocity for the people who went through the authoritarianism of radical Islamists for almost half a decade. Many of these mosques are the bases for the IRGC and Basij forces, who are actively shooting people in the streets. That is why the context of this protest is important, and many so-called journalists are not bothering themselves to search about their subject before engage farming on their social media.
7- In the end, I want to mention that Iranians inside the borders will ultimately make the decision for their future. No foreign government can dictate their destiny, and long live freedom for everyone.